According to a poll from the Austin-based Democratic polling group Opinion Analysts, Rep. Lon Burnam has a comfortable 54–27 lead against openly gay Fort Worth ISD board member Carlos Vasquez in the race for the Democratic nomination in House District 90 nomination.
Opinion Analysts points out that Burnam’s lead is despite District 90’s large minority population:
Despite the majority Latino population, in terms of voting in the Democratic primary, HD 90 remains a coalition district. Our analysis of likely voters in the 2012 primary shows 40% Hispanic, another 31% African-American and an Anglo minority. Burnam stands at 54% in the uniformed trial heat, with substantial leads among Anglo and African-American voters and a smaller margin among Latino voters.
“I’m very pleased that this poll affirms what we always have known: that I have broad-based support in District 90 that cuts across all ethnic groups,” Burnam said in a press release announcing the poll results on Tuesday. “It’s clear that voters are not responding to Dr. Vasquez’s negative campaign efforts and want me to continue fighting for better public schools, safer gas drilling practices and improved health care in Austin.”
Vasquez said the poll is unreliable.
“Numbers can tell you what you want,” he told Instant Tea on Wednesday. “My polls tell me I’m two-to-one against him.”
Vasquez said the Opinion Analysts poll didn’t include a margin of error or a polling sample size. But he said he isn’t relying on his own polls either. He’s knocking on doors daily getting out the vote.
About 1,200 people have already early-voted in District 90. That relatively high number probably reflects the hotly contested race for the new Congressional District 33 that includes most of the House district.
Across Texas, four gays and lesbians are running in Democratic primaries for a spot on the November ballot.
According to Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund Vice President Denis Dison, Mary Gonzalez, who is running for a seat in El Paso, has the best chance of winning. Dison said that currently 18 states have no gays or lesbians in their statehouses.
“In November, that may drop to 12,” he said.
Early voting continues through May 25. Primary day is May 29.