Model predicts Texans will vote to legalize same-sex marriage in 2018

Posted on 06 Apr 2009 at 9:24am

Above is a map from NPR that shows where the U.S. stands on marriage equality. For an interactive version of the map, go here.

Also, there’s a fascinating post over at FiveThiryEight.com that essentially predicts when voters in various states will finally oppose constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage. The author uses a regressive model that factors in all 30 cases in which states have attempted to pass bans on same-sex marriage by voter initiative. According to the author,  the three most important variables in this equation are:

1. The year in which the amendment was voted upon;
2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives;
3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.

Based on the model, voters in Iowa, where the state Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage last week, would approve a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage by a margin of 56 percent to 44 percent this year. However, because Iowa requires that an initiative first receive approval in two consecutive sessions of the state Legislature, no ban is expected to make the ballot until 2012, when the vote would be a virtual toss-up.

The model predicts that voters in Texas, where a marriage ban was approved in 2005 with about three-quarters of the vote, won’t overturn the amendment until 2018. That would make Texas the 11th-to-last state to overturn its amendment, with Mississippi the last in 2024.

“It is entirely possible, of course, that past trends will not be predictive of future results,” the author writes. “There could be a backlash against gay marriage, somewhat as there was a backlash against drug legalization in the 1980s. Alternatively, there could be a paradigmatic shift in favor of permitting gay marriage, which might make these projections too conservative.

“Overall, however, marriage bans appear unlikely to be an electoral winner for very much longer, and soon the opposite may prove to be true.”

Comments

comments

Powered by Facebook Comments