Update: PPP to Poll Rhode Island Soon

Saturday I posted a call to vote in Public Policy Polling's poll asking which state they should conduct a poll in next. Despite trailing Maine going it, Rhode Island emerged the winner and will be next. Pollster Tom Jensen explains:

Rhode Island received the most votes from distinct individuals in our 'vote on where to poll' this week so that's where we'll go this time around along with North Carolina.

“Distinct individuals” makes it sound like Maine's lead was attributed to a single IP address (aka cheating).

Well done those of you who participated. Our work isn't done. Jensen asks:

What questions should we ask besides the races for President and Senate?

Go over there and tell him to poll “marriage equality.” The vote is near and a good result (which is likely) will do a lot to crowd National Organization's nonsense, lies and insanity out of the local paper's headlines, and place the lawmaker's focus on the “will of the people.”

Pam’s House Blend – Front Page

—  David Taffet

Ron Paul Wins CPAC Straw Poll

ron paulTexas Rep. Ron Paul is the candidate attendees at CPAC would most like
to see run for president in 2012, according to the results of the
Washington Times straw poll. 
Advocate.com: Daily News

—  David Taffet

Ron Paul Wins CPAC 2012 Straw Poll

Whackadoodle libertarian Ron Paul, whose supporters swarm CPAC every year, has unsurprisingly won the convention’s 2012 presidential straw poll for the second year in a row. However not to be dismissed in Paul’s win is the effect of the absence of the several major conservative groups who boycotted this year over GOProud. Sarah Palin only got 3%.

Joe. My. God.

—  David Taffet

A Poll Worth Freeping

Public Policy Polling is asking folks to weigh in on where they should poll next? The choices? Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Washington. 

The Poll is here.

I'm recommending you surf over and click “Rhode Island.” Here's why:

It's a very easy way for our community to put good (free) data into the hands of the advocates in that state to make their case to the legislators. It's been seven months near as I can see since we've had reliable polling in Rhode Island on the issue of marriage equality. In June 2009, National Organization for Marriage was up to their usual dirty tricks. They commissioned a poll that allegedly showed 43% opposed and 36% support.

Of course, this is NOM's usual nonsense and lies. The sample pool was probably culled from a Tea Party Convention. The last poll I can find was commissioned by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research in July, 2010. A survey of 502 likely voters showed very, very different results:

“Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally?”

Favor: 59%
Oppose: 31%

As the vote heats up in Rhode Island, surely NOM will be quoting their fake poll left and right. Unlike, National Organization for Marriage, however, Public Policy Polling is a well-respected pollster with creditability. If they were to release similar results at this time, it could well resonate with lawmakers who are on the fence about this issue. Fresh headlines of support can only help move that vote in our favor and marginalize the opposition.

Now, there's no guarantee that Public Policy Polling will actually ask anything about marriage equality. But with the battle looming large in that state, they'd very remiss if they didn't include a question. 

I've been assured that last time they conducted such a survey, they did indeed go with the popular vote winner. 

The Poll is here. It take just a moment to click on it. It ends Monday.

Pam’s House Blend – Front Page

—  David Taffet

As marriage bill is introduced, poll shows support from majority of Maryland voters

As we reported yesterday, Equality Maryland is holding its press conference today in Annapolis to announce the introduction of the marriage bill with an impressive lineup of speakers. The legislation has a very good chance of passing and the Governor will sign it.

This morning, the Washington Post released its latest Maryland polling. And, it showed a majority of the state’s registered voters support a same-sex marriage law:

The poll also includes good numbers for advocates of same-sex marriage, a high-profile issue this legislative session.

In the poll, 51 percent of voters say they would favor a law in Maryland allowing same-sex couples to marry, while 44 percent opposed such a law and 5 percent gave no response.

If the legislature passes a same-sex marriage bill, it is likely to be petitioned to the ballot for a statewide vote in 2012.

We’ll need those numbers — and more — to win on the ballot next year.




AMERICAblog Gay

—  admin

Thanks for the push, Maggie. We like this Michigan poll too

This is how Maggie Gallagher, writing for the NOM Blog, presents new Michigan state polling data:

Screen Shot 2011-01-07 At 9.49.48 Am

[NOM BLOG]

So okay, let’s start with the “only 55 percent” claim. Are we seriously at a place where Maggie is painting a certain subdivision’s majority support for marriage equality as a good sign for her side? Because it wasn’t too long ago — as in HDTV was already around — that all breakdowns in all polls were under the 50% mark. If Maggie wants to look somewhat favorably at majority percentages like this one, in a world where support firms up every time a new voter turns eighteen, then that’s her prerogative. But we don’t believe she believes it. Not really.

But beyond just that: The actual WDIV/Detroit News/Glengariff Group Inc data paints an even more favorable pic than Maggie’s purposely limited presentation would have one believe.

By a margin of 38.5%-50.2%, Michigan voters oppose allowing gay men and lesbians to get married. 54.9% of Democratic voters support gay marriage, 42.3% of Independent voters support gay marriage, but only 19.6% of Republican voters support gay marriage.

But when asked if they support granting the alternative of civil unions to provide the legal benefits of marriage while still preserving the word marriage as something between a man and a woman, voters support civil unions by a margin of 55.7%-36.5%.

63.7% of Democratic voters, 61.1% of Independent voters and even 44.3% of Republican voters said they could support civil unions for gay and lesbian Michiganders.

There is a strongly difference by gender specifically on the issue of marriage.

Men oppose marriage by a margin of 33.0%-56.7% But women SUPPORT same sex marriage by the narrow margin of 44.0%-42.6% Men support civil unions by a margin of 55.7%-36.7%. Women support civil unions by a nearly identical margin of 55.7%-36.3%. Men appear to have a strong reaction to the word ‘marriage’ that women do not share.

Michigan Voters Survey (pdf) [Glengariff]

Funny that Maggie completely overlooks civil unions (which, at the end of the day, NOM almost ways disfavors, even if they’re less forthright about it).

But beyond even that data, there’s one more important piece that Maggie fails to mention. In the marriage question itself, there is a pretty high “don’t know/refused” percentage, and an undeniably small opposition figure:

Screen Shot 2011-01-07 At 9.58.54 Am

11.3% didn’t answer? Hmm. There are multiple reasons why folks might fall into that category. But most opponents of marriage equality are pretty darn forthright about it. We’d def. go out on a limb and say a larger portion of that 11.3% will move our way over the years, especially if we just keep telling our stories.

And finally: The fact that only 50.2% in total voiced opposition, and only 42% of them strongly? That’s pretty soft for someone like Maggie, who relies on a motivated opposition to turn out on election day. No wonder she ignored it.

If this poll is truly representative and a question of marriage inequality again makes its way to Michigan’s polls, will Maggie able to hold onto/turn out enough of this 50.2%, or to convert enough of the undecideds to put her fight above the bare majority threshold? Perhaps. But tick, tick, Maggie — 18th birthday party invites go out every day.

**

*NOTE: An earlier version of this post suggested that Michigan did not yet have a constitutional ban. In fact, the state did pass a ban in 2004 — One that banned both marriage and civil unions.

Interestingly, they did so by 58.6%, which would seem to further highlight that momentum is on our side, not Maggie’s.




Good As You

—  admin

New CBS poll: “Repeal DADT!” says a 3:1 majority.

On Saturday, CBS came out with its latest polling, showing that Americans by a 3:1 majority support repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell, 69% in favor to 23% opposed, with 8% not sure.

In light of the upcoming vote (or failure to vote) on repeal, today I'll examine more polling on Don't Ask, Don't Tell.  There are a lot of polls on this subject, each with its own slightly different wording, and there are multiple polls from the same organizations. (In my last diary I looked at some polling data and trends on marriage equality. Check it out).

For this analysis, I decided to take the most recent poll for each organization that has polled at least once on Don't Ask, Don't Tell over the last two years.

Below is a table of those results.

 

Date Org. Pro Con Unsure Ratio
Dec CBS 69 23 8 3:1
Nov Marist 47 48 5 1:1
Nov NBC 50 38 10 1.3:1
Nov Quinnipaic 58 34 8 1.7:1
Nov CNN 72 23 5 3.1:1
Nov Pew 58 27 16 2.1:1
Feb ABC 75 24 1 3.1:1
Feb Fox 61 30 9 2:1
May09 Gallup 69 26 6 2.7:1
Dec08 Newsweek 66 29 5 2.3:1

Averages: Pro: 62.5%, Con: 30.2%, Unsure: 7.3%, Ratio: 2.1:1

 

One could use a different methodology; perhaps averaging all the polls, not just the latest one by each organization; perhaps throwing out the best and worst polls as outliers.  It turns out that it really doesn't matter.  Any reasonable polling aggregation and averaging strategy will show that Americans support repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell by approximately a 2:1 ratio.

In fact, according to a Pew poll taken earlier in the year ( not included above) which sampled more than 6000 Americans, there are only two demographic groupings that do not support DADT Repeal by a statistically significant margin:  

White Evangelical Protestants: 43% – 47%
Conservative Republicans: 39% – 50%

For every other crosstab — by age, by race, by sex, by education, by geographic region — each subcategorization supports DADT repeal by a large margin.

But make no mistake: despite a favorability ratio rarely seen on any issue, the votes for repeal in the Senate are not there. The owners of the those critical votes, Collins, Brown, and Lugar, want to make it seem like they will vote for repeal, but in fact they have attached so many conditions to their affirmative vote to allow debate to begin on the National Defense Authorization Act (the bill that contains DADT repeal) that their recent statements advocating repeal are meaningless:

  • “Once the tax issue is resolved”
  • “Once the budget process is complete”
  • “Sufficient time allowed for debate and amendments”
  • “if Democrats permitted Republicans to introduce amendments”

Do not be fooled.  Even if these conditions could be met (and what does 'having the tax issue resolved' really mean?) other conditions will likely suddenly appear out of nowhere.  “Oh The moon is full?– Sorry, there can be no vote today.”

The Republican caucus is not about to give Democrats in Congress or this Democratic administration a victory of any kind as long as they are able to breathe.  They know very well that failure to pass DADT repeal will rend the Democratic Party (as well it should, for being utterly spineless in the face of discrimination) into groups shouting recriminations at each other, and that such will carry through the 2012 elections.

Could I be wrong? I could. The Republicans could suddenly be struck by lightning on the road to Damascus and return from the weekend longing to be paragons of bipartisanship.  

It could happen; after all, it did once 2000 years ago.

Or they could be swayed by their constituents, by Lady Gaga redux, and by impassioned pleas.  It's not much of a hope — it didn't work in September — but it's pretty much all we can do at this point.

Here's the contact list, you know what to do:

BLANCHE LINCOLN
ARKANSAS
202-224-4843
email
501-375-2993  870-382-1023  870-910-6896  479-251-1224
912 West Fourth Street, Little Rock, AR 72201

SUSAN COLLINS
MAINE
202-224-2523
email
207-622-8414 207-945-0417 207-780-3575
One Canal Plazam, Suite 802, Portland, ME 04101

OLYMPIA SNOWE
MAINE
202-224-5344
email
207-786-2451 207-622-8292 207-945-0432
3 Canal Plaza, Suite 601, Portland, ME 04101

SCOTT BROWN
MASSACHUSETTS
202-224-4543
email
617-565-3170
2400 JFK Federal Building, 55 New Sudbury Street, Boston, MA 02203

GEORGE VOINOVICH
OHIO
202-224-3353
email
216-522-7095, 513-684-3265, 419-259-3895
1240 East 9th Street, Room 3061, Cleveland, OH 44199

LISA MURKOWSKI
ALASKA
202-224-6665
email
907-456-0233, 907-271-3735
101 12th Ave, Room 216, Fairbanks, AK 99701

DICK LUGAR
INDIANA
202-224-4814
email
812-465-6313 317-226-5555
180 Market Tower, 10 West Market St., Indianapolis, Indiana 46204

KIT BOND
MISSOURI
202-224-5721
email
816-471-7141 314-725-4484
7700 Bonhomme, #615 St. Louis, MO 63105  

MARK KIRK
ILLINOIS
202-225-4835 (Congressional office)
email (Congressperson form)
847-940-0202 (local Congressional office)
707 Skokie Boulevard, Suite 350, Northbrook, IL 60062

JOE MANCHIN
WEST VIRGINIA
202-224-3954
email (governor's page)
304-205-5889 (senate campaign office phone)

Senate Majority Leader:

HARRY REID
NEVADA
202-224-3542
email
702-388-5020 775-882-7343 775-686-5750
Lloyd D. George Bldg., 333 Las Vegas Blvd S, Suite 8016 Las Vegas, NV 89101

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman:

CARL LEVIN
MICHIGAN
202-224-6221
email
517-377-1508 313-226-6020
124 West Allegan, Suite 1810, Lansing, MI

WHITE HOUSE
White House Comment Line: 202-456-1111
Email the White House: form

MORE SENATORS
Contact information for all Senators: US Senate

Pam’s House Blend – Front Page

—  admin

Pew Poll: Support for Same-Sex Marriage Reaches New Milestone.

Yesterday, Back in October Pew Research announced that for the first time in 15 years of polling, fewer than half of those surveyed oppose same-sex marriage.

Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally?

Photobucket

While a plurality still say they oppose same-sex marriage, no one can miss the historical trend.  Since 1996 the gap between those say they support same-sex marriage and those who do not has gone from 38% down to 6%, narrowing by a little more than 2% a year.  Since 2005, the gap has narrowed by 11%, just about 2% a year as well.  Past performance is no guarantee of the future, but if the trend holds we can expect that in a little less than 3 years the Pew polling will be showing plurality support for equal marriage rights.
The Pew Poll asks a two-way question: do you favor same-sex marriage or not?  There is a variant that other polls ask, a three-way question: traditional marriage only, civil unions, or marriage equality?

CBS has asked this three-way question for the past seven years now.  Here are the trendlines connecting CBS's first polling result in 2004 with their most recent in 2010:

Which comes closest to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry. OR, Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry. OR, There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship.”

marriage-equality

The CBS results are consistent with the Pew Poll. Somewhere around 40% of Americans now support marriage equality, even when given the choice of civil unions. Almost all of those opting for civil unions come from the pool of people against same-sex marriage, it seems. The CBS results are also consistent with recent polling in Illinois, which suggested that 67% of the voters supported the recently-enacted civil unions bill.  (The CBS results show that 70% currently support marriage equality or civil unions.)

Some other interesting results from the latest Pew Survey:

  • Only 53% of Democrats support same-sex marriage. That's a lot better than 24% of Republicans, but still leaves room for a huge increase in support.
  • Only 53% of younger voters (18-29) support same-sex marriage.  Again, much better than the 28% of those age 65 or older, but leaving a lot of room for improvement.
  • Atheists and agnostics supported equal marriage rights at a whopping 80%, followed by those of the Jewish faith at 76%.  White Evangelicals unsurpisingly came in lowest at 20%.

A few other polls have shown stronger support for equal marriage rights, but the questions have been worded very differently.  For example, an AP poll:

“Should the federal government give legal recognition to marriages between couples of the same sex, or not?”

Should: 52%  Should not: 45%

And a recent CNN poll:

“Do you think gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?”

Yes: 52%  No: 46%

What's the bottom line?  It is quite clear the support for equal marriage rights will soon reach a plurality of Americans if trends continue, and may be there already. It is unlikely that a majority as yet support same-sex marriage but, unless society makes a U-turn, that day is going to come sooner rather than later.  But majority support in and of itself is not enough, as has been amply demonstrated these past months in Congress. This is not a struggle that will be over soon…

Pew also asked about Don't Ask, Don't Tell. Americans support repeal of DADT by a 2:1 ratio, 60% – 30%.  These results are consistent with the average of other polls on the subject taken this year, and represents one of the most popular actions that Congress could take.

What I found particularly interesting about their DADT results is that of all 30 crosstab categories provided by Pew, only two groupings did not favor DADT repeal.  Can you guess which two?  I knew you could:

Conservative Republicans: 39% favor, 50% against.
White Evangelicals: 43% favor, 47% against.

And it's even pretty close — probably within the margin of error — for White Evangelicals! Every single other demographic grouping they listed favored repeal by a statistically significant amount.

Still, the President can't even get his Generals to support him on this.

Sigh.
Pam’s House Blend – Front Page

—  admin

How being known as a hateful state can sometimes get you more photo shoots

The Los Angeles-based NOH8 Campaign is conducting a poll on Twitter that asks, “What st8 should the next @NOH8Campaign photoshoot be in?” And after two days of voting, the Gr8 St8 of Texas is ahead by a mile, receiving 11 percent of the 2,541 votes cast. California is the only st8 that’s even close with 7 percent, followed by New York with 5 percent. Some of this likely has to do with population, but it’s also probably an indication that people think the campaign is needed here. And they’re right, but we’d suggest picking one of the cities where it’s really needed — instead of Dallas, Houston or Austin.

—  John Wright

Poll: Most Favor Gays Serving Openly 

DON'T ASK DON'T TELL TROOPS ARMY DADT X390 (GETTY)  ADVOCATE.COMThe latest Pew survey on “don’t ask, don’t tell” repeal shows that 58 percent of Americans support gay and lesbian servicemembers being allowed to serve openly, with only 27 percent of those surveyed supporting the DADT policy.
Advocate.com: Daily News

—  admin